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Prediction for CME (2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-01T08:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28924/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Partial halo CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source centered around N20E05. A C3.0 flare peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive arcades in STEREO A EUV 195 and SDO AIA 193, but eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO From 2024-02-01T06:42Z to 2024-02-01T07:51Z. Filamentary material seen lifting off in GOES SUVI 304, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in SDO AIA 94. Possible arrival signature is unclear. The complex signature is characterized by gradual increases in Btotal (to 11nT) and solar wind speed (to 500 km/s), as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components indicative of a high speed stream. It is possible that this signature includes a CME arrival, as it also encompasses a drop in temperature and density over 2024-02-05. The signature will be revisited once Level 1 solar wind data is available.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T02:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Feb 02 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was
a C3 flare, centered near N21E02, which peaked at 01/0743 UTC. A
subsequent CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery after 01/0748
UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event showed most of the ejecta headed
northward but potential for the periphery of the CME to influence Earth
later on 04 Feb and into 05 Feb.

Solar Wind

.Forecast...
At or near nominal solar wind parameters are anticipated over 02-03 Feb.
Late on 04 Feb, there is potential for interaction with the periphery of
a CME that left the Sun on 01 Feb.

----------------

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Feb 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 02-Feb 04 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 02-Feb 04 2024

             Feb 02       Feb 03       Feb 04
00-03UT       0.67         1.67         2.00     
03-06UT       0.33         1.33         2.00     
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         2.33     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         1.67     
12-15UT       0.67         1.33         2.00     
15-18UT       1.00         1.33         3.33     
18-21UT       1.00         1.67         4.00     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         4.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Lead Time: 63.28 hour(s)
Difference: -15.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-02-01T11:18Z

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